First order second moment ( FOSM ) analysis was used with a nonlinear moment-rotation model to predict the failure probability of nailed timber connections with gusset plates. A parametric study was made, the variables being: number of nails ( 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 ); nail diameter ( 2.36, 3.00 and 3.35 mm ); coefficient of variation in nail diameter ( 0.05, 0.10 and 0.15 ); and imposed load ( 0.40, 0.55 and 0.70 kN ). Nail diameter, particularly the smaller diameters, had a significant influence on the moment-capacity of the connection. It was concluded that the incorporation of FOSM analysis with a nonlinear moment-rotation model gave a more rational description of the connection behaviour without having to resort to the more traditional Monte Carlo simulation. 15 refs.
Primary author(s): Drummond I;Kermani A
Vol.156, No.3, 2003, p.283-290