A schedule risk model ( Evaluating Risk in Construction-Schedule Model ( ERIC-S ) ) was developed to determine the lower ( optimistic ) and upper ( pessimistic ) durations for a construction project. A belief network was used, developed in four stages. Construction schedule risks were established from a literature review, an expert review and a group review by experts. The cause-effect relationships among the risks were then established using an expert survey, enabling the structural development of the belief network model. At the third stage, probabilities for various combinations of parents for each risk variable were determined using an expert interview survey. The final stage consisted of a sensitivity analysis. Very good agreement was obtained between the model results and those of 17 case studies. 79 refs.
Primary author(s): Nasir D;McCabe B;Hartono L
Vol. 129, No.5, 2003, p.518-527