Following the news that direct-to-device (D2D) LEO vendor AST SpaceMobile’s “BlueBird 7” satellite, launched on Blue Origin’s launch vehicle, failed to reach correct low-Earth orbit position and is in the process of being decommissioned.
Ismail Patel, Senior Analyst in Enterprise Technology at GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform, offers his view:
“BB7 was the second in a family of next-gen space antennas manufactured by AST SpaceMobile. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket’s failure to put BB7 in its proper orbit means BlueBird launches will slow down as the company goes into safe mode. AST SpaceMobile’s ambition of launching at least 45 antennas this year was already shaping up to be unlikely, having only launched BlueBird 6 in December with the Indian LVM3 rocket from the island of Sriharikota, Andhra Pradesh, India. The BB7 event has undoubtedly impacted confidence in the cadence of AST SpaceMobile BlueBird launches, leading to doubts as to whether it can become a credible D2D challenger to Starlink’s D2D service, Starlink Mobile, over the next couple of years. Starlink currently has 650 D2D-capable antennas in orbit, with hundreds more next-gen V2 D2D satellites scheduled for 2027.
“Currently, there are very few launch vendors capable of sending up a six-ton BlueBird. For the foreseeable future, Blue Origin’s NG rockets have been taken out of contention, pending a regulatory investigation headed by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This may also have an impact on Amazon Leo’s launch timeframes, though that is expected to be limited as Amazon has a multi-launcher strategy and has not bound by Jeff Bezos-owned Blue Origin.
“Globally, around 50 telcos are in commercial or MoU agreements for D2D services with AST SpaceMobile. Operators with whom the satco has deals on the table – like AT&T, KDDI, TELUS, Verizon, Vodafone, and stc (which sent a prepayment of $175 million to AST SpaceMobile last October) – will face either delays or a substantially downgraded service. This risks the short-term revenue pipeline for AST SpaceMobile through no fault of its own. Still, any further slippage in the timeline, or delay in the launch of the next BlueBirds will erode market confidence in the commercial feasibility of AST SpaceMobile as a genuine rival to Starlink Mobile.
“In what is a CAPEX-intensive race to launch as much antenna capability as possible, and in the current satellite climate that is highly reliant on confidence and momentum, the future of AST SpaceMobile now hinges on a series of flawless launches. With Amazon Leo also racing to operationalize its own satellite constellation and D2D services, and with other global and regions LEOs scheduled to go live over the next 24 months, time is of the essence for AST SpaceMobile.
“AST SpaceMobile is neither as established as SpaceX nor as diversified as Amazon with its deep pockets. For the sake of competition in a future D2D market, it cannot afford further blips. Any further adverse events will sap investor confidence in AST SpaceMobile, and the type of competition was AST SpaceMobile was promising to offer – as per the promising partnerships it has forged to date – will by hindered for years. This will leave large swathes of the global D2D market with an overly dominant Starlink Mobile.”